Single poll

INSA poll of 18 December 2018 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
13 to 17 Dec 2018
Respondents
2,077
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU29.0%±0
  • Grüne18.0%+1.0
  • SPD15.0%±0
  • AfD15.0%±0
  • FDP9.5%-0.5
  • Linke9.5%-0.5
  • Others4.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 10 Dec 2018.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 2,077 people were surveyed from 13 to 17 Dec 2018, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 10 Dec 2018, Grüne gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 1.5 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 18 Dec 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -1.5average 19.5
  • AfD +0.9average 14.1
  • FDP +0.9average 8.6
  • Linke +0.6average 8.9
  • CDU/CSU -0.2average 29.2
  • SPD -0.1average 15.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 190 seatsGrüne: 118 seatsSPD: 99 seatsAfD: 99 seatsFDP: 62 seatsLinke: 62 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU190
  • Grüne118
  • SPD99
  • AfD99
  • FDP62
  • Linke62
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD407 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD407 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD388 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP370 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke370 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP351 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke351 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP351 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke351 of 630
  • Grüne + SPD + AfD316 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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