INSA poll of 10 December 2018 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 8 to 10 Dec 2018
- Respondents
- 2,047
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU29.0%+1.5
- Grüne17.0%-1.0
- SPD15.0%+1.5
- AfD15.0%-1.0
- FDP10.0%+0.5
- Linke10.0%-1.0
- Others4.0%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 3 Dec 2018.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by Grüne on 17.0%. 2,047 people were surveyed from 8 to 10 Dec 2018, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 3 Dec 2018, CDU/CSU gains 1.5 points, SPD gains 1.5 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 3.0 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 10 Dec 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -3.0average 20.0
- FDP +1.3average 8.7
- Linke +1.1average 8.9
- AfD +0.7average 14.3
- CDU/CSU +0.5average 28.5
- SPD +0.1average 14.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU190
- Grüne112
- SPD98
- AfD98
- FDP66
- Linke66
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD400 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD400 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD386 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP368 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke368 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP354 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke354 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP354 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke354 of 630
- CDU/CSU + FDP + Linke322 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.