Single poll

INSA poll of 3 December 2018 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
30 Nov 2018 to 3 Dec 2018
Respondents
2,069
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU27.5%±0
  • Grüne18.0%-1.0
  • AfD16.0%±0
  • SPD13.5%-0.5
  • Linke11.0%+1.0
  • FDP9.5%+1.0
  • Others4.5%-0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 27 Nov 2018.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.5%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 2,069 people were surveyed from 30 Nov 2018 to 3 Dec 2018, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 27 Nov 2018, Grüne loses 1.0 points, Linke gains 1.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 2.6 points lower and Linke 2.1 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 3 Dec 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -2.6average 20.6
  • Linke +2.1average 8.9
  • SPD -1.4average 14.9
  • AfD +1.2average 14.8
  • FDP +0.5average 9.0
  • CDU/CSU +0.1average 27.4
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 181 seatsGrüne: 119 seatsAfD: 105 seatsSPD: 89 seatsLinke: 73 seatsFDP: 63 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU181
  • Grüne119
  • AfD105
  • SPD89
  • Linke73
  • FDP63
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD405 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD389 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD375 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke373 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP363 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke359 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP349 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke343 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP333 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Linke + FDP317 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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