INSA poll of 3 December 2018 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 30 Nov 2018 to 3 Dec 2018
- Respondents
- 2,069
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU27.5%±0
- Grüne18.0%-1.0
- AfD16.0%±0
- SPD13.5%-0.5
- Linke11.0%+1.0
- FDP9.5%+1.0
- Others4.5%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 27 Nov 2018.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.5%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 2,069 people were surveyed from 30 Nov 2018 to 3 Dec 2018, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 27 Nov 2018, Grüne loses 1.0 points, Linke gains 1.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 2.6 points lower and Linke 2.1 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 3 Dec 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -2.6average 20.6
- Linke +2.1average 8.9
- SPD -1.4average 14.9
- AfD +1.2average 14.8
- FDP +0.5average 9.0
- CDU/CSU +0.1average 27.4
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU181
- Grüne119
- AfD105
- SPD89
- Linke73
- FDP63
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD405 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD389 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD375 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke373 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP363 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke359 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP349 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke343 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP333 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Linke + FDP317 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.