Single poll

INSA poll of 12 November 2018 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
9 to 12 Nov 2018
Respondents
2,070
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU25.5%+1.0
  • Grüne20.0%+1.0
  • AfD16.5%±0
  • SPD14.0%+0.5
  • Linke10.0%-1.0
  • FDP9.0%-1.0
  • Others5.0%-0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 5 Nov 2018.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 25.5%, followed by Grüne on 20.0%. 2,070 people were surveyed from 9 to 12 Nov 2018, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 5 Nov 2018, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, Linke loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 1.5 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 12 Nov 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +1.5average 15.0
  • CDU/CSU -1.2average 26.7
  • SPD -1.1average 15.1
  • Linke +0.7average 9.3
  • FDP -0.4average 9.4
  • Grüne +0.3average 19.7
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 169 seatsGrüne: 133 seatsAfD: 109 seatsSPD: 93 seatsLinke: 66 seatsFDP: 60 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU169
  • Grüne133
  • AfD109
  • SPD93
  • Linke66
  • FDP60
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD411 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD395 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD371 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke368 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP362 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke344 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP338 of 630
  • Grüne + AfD + SPD335 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke328 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP322 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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