INSA poll of 5 November 2018 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 2 to 5 Nov 2018
- Respondents
- 3,183
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU24.5%-0.5
- Grüne19.0%-1.0
- AfD16.5%±0
- SPD13.5%-0.5
- Linke11.0%±0
- FDP10.0%+0.5
- Others5.5%+1.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 30 Oct 2018.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 24.5%, followed by Grüne on 19.0%. 3,183 people were surveyed from 2 to 5 Nov 2018, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 30 Oct 2018, Grüne loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU/CSU 2.5 points lower and SPD 1.7 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Nov 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -2.5average 27.0
- SPD -1.7average 15.2
- Linke +1.3average 9.7
- AfD +1.0average 15.5
- FDP +0.7average 9.3
- Grüne +0.4average 18.6
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU163
- Grüne127
- AfD110
- SPD90
- Linke73
- FDP67
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD400 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD380 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke363 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD363 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP357 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke346 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP340 of 630
- Grüne + AfD + SPD327 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke326 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP320 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.