INSA poll of 30 October 2018 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 26 to 29 Oct 2018
- Respondents
- 2,052
- Method
- Unbekannt
- CDU/CSU25.0%-1.0
- Grüne20.0%+1.0
- AfD16.5%-0.5
- SPD14.0%-1.0
- Linke11.0%+0.5
- FDP9.5%+0.5
- Others4.0%+0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 23 Oct 2018.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 25.0%, followed by Grüne on 20.0%. 2,052 people were surveyed from 26 to 29 Oct 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 23 Oct 2018, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 2.5 points higher and CDU/CSU 1.6 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Oct 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne +2.5average 17.5
- CDU/CSU -1.6average 26.6
- SPD -1.6average 15.6
- Linke +1.1average 9.9
- AfD +0.4average 16.1
- FDP +0.2average 9.3
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU164
- Grüne132
- AfD108
- SPD92
- Linke72
- FDP62
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD404 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD388 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke368 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD364 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP358 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke344 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP334 of 630
- Grüne + AfD + SPD332 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke328 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP318 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.