INSA poll of 16 October 2018 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 12 to 15 Oct 2018
- Respondents
- 2,061
- Method
- Unbekannt
- CDU/CSU26.5%+0.5
- AfD18.0%±0
- Grüne17.0%+2.0
- SPD15.0%-1.0
- Linke10.5%-0.5
- FDP9.5%-0.5
- Others3.5%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 9 Oct 2018.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.5%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 2,061 people were surveyed from 12 to 15 Oct 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 9 Oct 2018, Grüne gains 2.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 1.8 points higher and SPD 1.7 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Oct 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +1.8average 16.2
- SPD -1.7average 16.7
- CDU/CSU -1.2average 27.7
- Grüne +1.1average 15.9
- Linke +0.6average 9.9
- FDP +0.5average 9.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU173
- AfD117
- Grüne111
- SPD98
- Linke69
- FDP62
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Grüne401 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD388 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD382 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke359 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke353 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP352 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP346 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP333 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + SPD326 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.