Single poll

INSA poll of 9 October 2018 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
5 to 8 Oct 2018
Respondents
2,054
Method
Unbekannt
  • CDU/CSU26.0%±0
  • AfD18.0%-0.5
  • SPD16.0%±0
  • Grüne15.0%+0.5
  • Linke11.0%-0.5
  • FDP10.0%±0
  • Others4.0%+0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 1 Oct 2018.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 2,054 people were surveyed from 5 to 8 Oct 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 1 Oct 2018, no party moves by more than one point.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU/CSU 1.9 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 9 Oct 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -1.9average 27.9
  • AfD +1.4average 16.6
  • FDP +1.1average 8.9
  • SPD -0.9average 16.9
  • Linke +0.8average 10.2
  • Grüne -0.3average 15.3
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 171 seatsAfD: 118 seatsSPD: 105 seatsGrüne: 98 seatsLinke: 72 seatsFDP: 66 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU171
  • AfD118
  • SPD105
  • Grüne98
  • Linke72
  • FDP66
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD394 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Grüne387 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne374 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke361 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP355 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke348 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP342 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke341 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP335 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne321 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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