Single poll

INSA poll of 21 September 2018 for the federal election

Commissioned by
FOCUS
Fieldwork period
19 Sep 2018
Respondents
1,040
Method
Unbekannt
  • CDU/CSU27.5%-1.0
  • AfD17.5%±0
  • SPD16.5%-0.5
  • Grüne14.5%+1.5
  • Linke11.0%+0.5
  • FDP10.0%+1.0
  • Others3.0%-1.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 17 Sep 2018.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.5%, followed by AfD on 17.5%. 1,040 people were surveyed from 19 Sep 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by FOCUS.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 17 Sep 2018, Grüne gains 1.5 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 2.0 points higher and CDU/CSU 1.9 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Sep 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +2.0average 15.5
  • CDU/CSU -1.9average 29.4
  • SPD -1.5average 18.0
  • FDP +1.5average 8.5
  • Linke +1.4average 9.6
  • Grüne +0.2average 14.3
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 179 seatsAfD: 114 seatsSPD: 107 seatsGrüne: 94 seatsLinke: 71 seatsFDP: 65 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU179
  • AfD114
  • SPD107
  • Grüne94
  • Linke71
  • FDP65
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD400 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Grüne387 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne380 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke364 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP358 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke357 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP351 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke344 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP338 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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