Single poll

INSA poll of 17 July 2018 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
13 to 16 Jul 2018
Respondents
2,084
Method
Unbekannt
  • CDU/CSU29.0%±0
  • AfD17.5%±0
  • SPD17.0%±0
  • Grüne13.0%+1.0
  • Linke10.0%-1.0
  • FDP9.5%±0
  • Others4.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 9 Jul 2018.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by AfD on 17.5%. 2,084 people were surveyed from 13 to 16 Jul 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 9 Jul 2018, Grüne gains 1.0 points, Linke loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 1.6 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 17 Jul 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +1.6average 15.9
  • CDU/CSU -1.3average 30.3
  • SPD -0.8average 17.8
  • FDP +0.7average 8.8
  • Grüne +0.3average 12.7
  • Linke +0.1average 9.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 190 seatsAfD: 115 seatsSPD: 112 seatsGrüne: 85 seatsLinke: 66 seatsFDP: 62 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU190
  • AfD115
  • SPD112
  • Grüne85
  • Linke66
  • FDP62
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD417 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Grüne390 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne387 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke371 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke368 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP367 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP364 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke341 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP337 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Linke + FDP318 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.