Single poll

INSA poll of 9 July 2018 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
6 to 9 Jul 2018
Respondents
2,061
Method
Unbekannt
  • CDU/CSU29.0%±0
  • AfD17.5%+1.0
  • SPD17.0%-2.0
  • Grüne12.0%±0
  • Linke11.0%±0
  • FDP9.5%+0.5
  • Others4.0%+0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 3 Jul 2018.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by AfD on 17.5%. 2,061 people were surveyed from 6 to 9 Jul 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 3 Jul 2018, SPD loses 2.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 2.5 points higher and CDU/CSU 2.0 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 9 Jul 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +2.5average 15.0
  • CDU/CSU -2.0average 31.0
  • Linke +1.3average 9.7
  • SPD -1.2average 18.2
  • Grüne -0.7average 12.7
  • FDP +0.3average 9.2
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 190 seatsAfD: 115 seatsSPD: 112 seatsGrüne: 79 seatsLinke: 72 seatsFDP: 62 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU190
  • AfD115
  • SPD112
  • Grüne79
  • Linke72
  • FDP62
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD417 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Grüne384 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne381 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke377 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke374 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP367 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP364 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke341 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP331 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Linke + FDP324 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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