INSA poll of 9 July 2018 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 6 to 9 Jul 2018
- Respondents
- 2,061
- Method
- Unbekannt
- CDU/CSU29.0%±0
- AfD17.5%+1.0
- SPD17.0%-2.0
- Grüne12.0%±0
- Linke11.0%±0
- FDP9.5%+0.5
- Others4.0%+0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 3 Jul 2018.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by AfD on 17.5%. 2,061 people were surveyed from 6 to 9 Jul 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 3 Jul 2018, SPD loses 2.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 2.5 points higher and CDU/CSU 2.0 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 9 Jul 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +2.5average 15.0
- CDU/CSU -2.0average 31.0
- Linke +1.3average 9.7
- SPD -1.2average 18.2
- Grüne -0.7average 12.7
- FDP +0.3average 9.2
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU190
- AfD115
- SPD112
- Grüne79
- Linke72
- FDP62
- CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD417 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Grüne384 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne381 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke377 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke374 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP367 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP364 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke341 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP331 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Linke + FDP324 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.