Single poll

INSA poll of 15 January 2018 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
12 to 15 Jan 2018
Respondents
2,000
Method
Unbekannt
  • CDU/CSU31.5%±0
  • SPD18.5%-1.0
  • AfD14.0%+0.5
  • Linke11.5%+0.5
  • Grüne10.0%±0
  • FDP9.5%-0.5
  • Others5.0%+0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 8 Jan 2018.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.5%, followed by SPD on 18.5%. 2,000 people were surveyed from 12 to 15 Jan 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 8 Jan 2018, SPD loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has SPD 2.3 points lower and Linke 2.1 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 15 Jan 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD -2.3average 20.8
  • Linke +2.1average 9.4
  • CDU/CSU -1.3average 32.8
  • AfD +1.3average 12.7
  • Grüne -1.2average 11.2
  • FDP +0.6average 8.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 209 seatsSPD: 123 seatsAfD: 93 seatsLinke: 76 seatsGrüne: 66 seatsFDP: 63 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU209
  • SPD123
  • AfD93
  • Linke76
  • Grüne66
  • FDP63
  • CDU/CSU + SPD332 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke378 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Grüne368 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP365 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Linke + Grüne351 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Linke + FDP348 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP338 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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