Single poll

Infratest dimap poll of 19 December 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ARD-Tagesthemen
Fieldwork period
16 to 18 Dec 2024
Respondents
1,336
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU33.0%+1.0
  • AfD19.0%+1.0
  • SPD14.0%-2.0
  • Grüne14.0%±0
  • BSW5.0%±0
  • FDP3.0%-1.0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Others9.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Infratest dimap poll of 5 Dec 2024.

In this poll Infratest dimap has CDU/CSU ahead on 33.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,336 people were surveyed from 16 to 18 Dec 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ARD-Tagesthemen.

Compared with the previous Infratest dimap poll of 5 Dec 2024, SPD loses 2.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Infratest dimap has SPD 2.4 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 19 Dec 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD -2.4average 16.4
  • Grüne +1.2average 12.8
  • BSW -1.2average 6.2
  • AfD +1.1average 17.9
  • FDP -1.1average 4.1
  • CDU/CSU +0.9average 32.1
  • Linke +0.1average 2.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 244 seatsAfD: 141 seatsSPD: 104 seatsGrüne: 104 seatsBSW: 37 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU244
  • AfD141
  • SPD104
  • Grüne104
  • BSW37
  • CDU/CSU + AfD385 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD348 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne348 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne349 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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