Infratest dimap poll of 4 July 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ARD-Tagesthemen
- Fieldwork period
- 1 to 3 Jul 2024
- Respondents
- 1,294
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU31.0%±0
- AfD17.0%-1.0
- SPD14.0%-1.0
- Grüne13.0%-1.0
- BSW8.0%+3.0
- FDP5.0%+1.0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Others9.0%+2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Infratest dimap poll of 30 May 2024.
In this poll Infratest dimap has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 17.0%. 1,294 people were surveyed from 1 to 3 Jul 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ARD-Tagesthemen.
Compared with the previous Infratest dimap poll of 30 May 2024, BSW gains 3.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Jul 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD -1.1average 15.1
- BSW +0.8average 7.2
- CDU/CSU +0.6average 30.4
- AfD +0.3average 16.7
- Grüne +0.3average 12.7
- FDP -0.2average 5.2
- Linke -0.1average 3.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU222
- AfD122
- SPD100
- Grüne93
- BSW57
- FDP36
- CDU/CSU + AfD344 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD322 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW372 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP351 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.