Single poll

Infratest dimap poll of 1 February 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ARD-Tagesthemen
Fieldwork period
29 to 31 Jan 2024
Respondents
1,303
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU30.0%-1.0
  • AfD19.0%-3.0
  • SPD16.0%+2.0
  • Grüne14.0%+1.0
  • BSW5.0%
  • FDP4.0%-1.0
  • Linke3.0%-1.0
  • Others9.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Infratest dimap poll of 4 Jan 2024.

In this poll Infratest dimap has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,303 people were surveyed from 29 to 31 Jan 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ARD-Tagesthemen.

Compared with the previous Infratest dimap poll of 4 Jan 2024, AfD loses 3.0 points, SPD gains 2.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Infratest dimap has AfD 2.1 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 1 Feb 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD -2.1average 21.1
  • SPD +1.2average 14.8
  • FDP -1.2average 5.2
  • BSW -0.8average 5.8
  • Linke -0.8average 3.8
  • Grüne +0.7average 13.3
  • CDU/CSU -0.5average 30.5
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 225 seatsAfD: 143 seatsSPD: 120 seatsGrüne: 105 seatsBSW: 37 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU225
  • AfD143
  • SPD120
  • Grüne105
  • BSW37
  • CDU/CSU + AfD368 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD345 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne330 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne368 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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