Infratest dimap poll of 4 January 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ARD-Tagesthemen
- Fieldwork period
- 2 to 3 Jan 2024
- Respondents
- 1,321
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU31.0%-1.0
- AfD22.0%+1.0
- SPD14.0%±0
- Grüne13.0%-1.0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke4.0%+1.0
- Freie Wähler3.0%-1.0
- Others8.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Infratest dimap poll of 21 Dec 2023.
In this poll Infratest dimap has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 1,321 people were surveyed from 2 to 3 Jan 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ARD-Tagesthemen.
Compared with the previous Infratest dimap poll of 21 Dec 2023, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -0.8average 31.8
- SPD -0.6average 14.6
- Grüne -0.4average 13.4
- Linke +0.3average 3.7
- FDP -0.2average 5.2
- AfD ±0average 22.0
- Freie Wähler ±0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU230
- AfD163
- SPD104
- Grüne96
- FDP37
- CDU/CSU + AfD393 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD334 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne326 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne363 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.