Single poll

Infratest dimap poll of 21 December 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ARD-Morgenmagazin
Fieldwork period
18 to 20 Dec 2023
Respondents
1,210
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU32.0%±0
  • AfD21.0%±0
  • SPD14.0%±0
  • Grüne14.0%-1.0
  • FDP5.0%+1.0
  • Freie Wähler4.0%+1.0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Others7.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Infratest dimap poll of 7 Dec 2023.

In this poll Infratest dimap has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 1,210 people were surveyed from 18 to 20 Dec 2023, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ARD-Morgenmagazin.

Compared with the previous Infratest dimap poll of 7 Dec 2023, Grüne loses 1.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points, Freie Wähler gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Dec 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Freie Wähler +1.2average 2.8
  • AfD -1.0average 22.0
  • SPD -0.9average 14.9
  • CDU/CSU +0.8average 31.2
  • Linke -0.7average 3.7
  • FDP -0.2average 5.2
  • Grüne +0.1average 13.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 234 seatsAfD: 154 seatsSPD: 103 seatsGrüne: 102 seatsFDP: 37 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU234
  • AfD154
  • SPD103
  • Grüne102
  • FDP37
  • CDU/CSU + AfD388 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD337 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne336 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne359 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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