Single poll

Infratest dimap poll of 19 October 2018 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ARD-Morgenmagazin
Fieldwork period
16 to 17 Oct 2018
Respondents
1,040
Method
Unbekannt
  • CDU/CSU25.0%-1.0
  • Grüne19.0%+2.0
  • AfD16.0%±0
  • SPD14.0%-1.0
  • FDP11.0%+1.0
  • Linke9.0%-1.0
  • Others6.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Infratest dimap poll of 11 Oct 2018.

In this poll Infratest dimap has CDU/CSU ahead on 25.0%, followed by Grüne on 19.0%. 1,040 people were surveyed from 16 to 17 Oct 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by ARD-Morgenmagazin.

Compared with the previous Infratest dimap poll of 11 Oct 2018, Grüne gains 2.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Infratest dimap has Grüne 2.3 points higher and CDU/CSU 2.2 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 19 Oct 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne +2.3average 16.7
  • CDU/CSU -2.2average 27.2
  • SPD -2.2average 16.2
  • FDP +2.0average 9.0
  • Linke -1.1average 10.1
  • AfD -0.4average 16.4
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 168 seatsGrüne: 127 seatsAfD: 107 seatsSPD: 94 seatsFDP: 74 seatsLinke: 60 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU168
  • Grüne127
  • AfD107
  • SPD94
  • FDP74
  • Linke60
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD402 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD389 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP369 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD369 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke355 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP349 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP336 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke335 of 630
  • Grüne + AfD + SPD328 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke322 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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