Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 20 August 2026 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 17 to 19 Aug 2026
- Respondents
- 1,319
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- AfD27.0%-1.0
- CDU/CSU22.0%-1.0
- Grüne14.0%+1.0
- SPD12.0%±0
- Linke12.0%±0
- FDP4.0%±0
- Others9.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 31 Jul 2026.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has AfD ahead on 27.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 22.0%. 1,319 people were surveyed from 17 to 19 Aug 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 31 Jul 2026, AfD loses 1.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 20 Aug 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- FDP -0.7average 4.7
- AfD -0.6average 27.6
- CDU/CSU +0.6average 21.4
- Linke +0.5average 11.5
- Grüne -0.3average 14.3
- SPD -0.1average 12.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- AfD196
- CDU/CSU159
- Grüne101
- SPD87
- Linke87
- AfD + CDU/CSU355 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + SPD384 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke384 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke370 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD347 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke347 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke333 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.