Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 31 July 2026 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 28 to 30 Jul 2026
- Respondents
- 1,405
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- AfD28.0%+1.0
- CDU/CSU23.0%±0
- Grüne13.0%-1.0
- SPD12.0%±0
- Linke12.0%-1.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- Others8.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 17 Jul 2026.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has AfD ahead on 28.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 23.0%. 1,405 people were surveyed from 28 to 30 Jul 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 17 Jul 2026, AfD gains 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points, Linke loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 31 Jul 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU +1.3average 21.7
- Grüne -1.1average 14.1
- AfD +0.6average 27.4
- Linke +0.6average 11.4
- SPD -0.5average 12.5
- FDP -0.5average 4.5
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- AfD200
- CDU/CSU165
- Grüne93
- SPD86
- Linke86
- AfD + CDU/CSU365 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + SPD379 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke379 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke372 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD344 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke344 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke337 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.