Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 17 July 2026 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 14 to 16 Jul 2026
- Respondents
- 1,284
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- AfD27.0%-1.0
- CDU/CSU23.0%-1.0
- Grüne14.0%+2.0
- Linke13.0%+2.0
- SPD12.0%-1.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- Others7.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 19 Jun 2026.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has AfD ahead on 27.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 23.0%. 1,284 people were surveyed from 14 to 16 Jul 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 19 Jun 2026, Grüne gains 2.0 points, Linke gains 2.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has Linke 1.7 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 17 Jul 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Linke +1.7average 11.3
- CDU/CSU +1.0average 22.0
- FDP -0.5average 4.5
- SPD -0.4average 12.4
- AfD -0.3average 27.3
- Grüne -0.1average 14.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- AfD191
- CDU/CSU163
- Grüne99
- Linke92
- SPD85
- AfD + CDU/CSU354 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke382 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + SPD375 of 630
- AfD + Linke + SPD368 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke354 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD347 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Linke + SPD340 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.