Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 16 January 2026 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 13 to 15 Jan 2026
- Respondents
- 1,245
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU26.0%±0
- AfD25.0%±0
- SPD15.0%+1.0
- Grüne12.0%±0
- Linke10.0%-1.0
- Others12.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 12 Dec 2025.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by AfD on 25.0%. 1,245 people were surveyed from 13 to 15 Jan 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 12 Dec 2025, SPD gains 1.0 points, Linke loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Jan 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU +0.8average 25.2
- AfD -0.7average 25.7
- SPD +0.5average 14.5
- Grüne -0.4average 12.4
- Linke -0.1average 10.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU186
- AfD179
- SPD107
- Grüne86
- Linke72
- CDU/CSU + AfD365 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne379 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne372 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke365 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke358 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke344 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke337 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.