Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 24 October 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
21 to 23 Oct 2025
Respondents
1,272
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU27.0%±0
  • AfD25.0%±0
  • SPD15.0%±0
  • Grüne11.0%±0
  • Linke10.0%-1.0
  • Others12.0%+4.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 2 Oct 2025.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by AfD on 25.0%. 1,272 people were surveyed from 21 to 23 Oct 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 2 Oct 2025, Linke loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU 1.8 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 24 Oct 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU +1.8average 25.2
  • Linke -0.8average 10.8
  • AfD -0.6average 25.6
  • SPD +0.6average 14.4
  • Grüne -0.4average 11.4
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 193 seatsAfD: 179 seatsSPD: 107 seatsGrüne: 79 seatsLinke: 72 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU193
  • AfD179
  • SPD107
  • Grüne79
  • Linke72
  • CDU/CSU + AfD372 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne379 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke372 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne365 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke358 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke344 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke330 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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