Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 2 October 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
29 Sep 2025 to 1 Oct 2025
Respondents
1,300
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU27.0%+1.0
  • AfD25.0%-1.0
  • SPD15.0%±0
  • Grüne11.0%+1.0
  • Linke11.0%±0
  • FDP3.0%±0
  • Others8.0%+2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 19 Sep 2025.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by AfD on 25.0%. 1,300 people were surveyed from 29 Sep 2025 to 1 Oct 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 19 Sep 2025, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 2 Oct 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU +1.3average 25.7
  • AfD -0.6average 25.6
  • Linke +0.6average 10.4
  • Grüne -0.4average 11.4
  • FDP -0.3average 3.3
  • SPD +0.2average 14.8
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 191 seatsAfD: 177 seatsSPD: 106 seatsGrüne: 78 seatsLinke: 78 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU191
  • AfD177
  • SPD106
  • Grüne78
  • Linke78
  • CDU/CSU + AfD368 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne375 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke375 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne361 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke361 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke347 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke333 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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