Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 14 August 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
11 to 13 Aug 2025
Respondents
1,370
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU27.0%±0
  • AfD23.0%-1.0
  • SPD15.0%±0
  • Grüne12.0%+1.0
  • Linke11.0%±0
  • FDP3.0%±0
  • BSW3.0%±0
  • Others6.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 25 Jul 2025.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by AfD on 23.0%. 1,370 people were surveyed from 11 to 13 Aug 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 25 Jul 2025, AfD loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 14 Aug 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD -1.3average 24.3
  • Linke +0.9average 10.1
  • BSW -0.9average 3.9
  • SPD +0.8average 14.2
  • FDP -0.6average 3.6
  • Grüne +0.2average 11.8
  • CDU/CSU +0.1average 26.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 193 seatsAfD: 165 seatsSPD: 107 seatsGrüne: 86 seatsLinke: 79 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU193
  • AfD165
  • SPD107
  • Grüne86
  • Linke79
  • CDU/CSU + AfD358 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne386 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke379 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke358 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne358 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke351 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke330 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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