Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 25 July 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
22 to 24 Jul 2025
Respondents
1,367
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU27.0%-2.0
  • AfD24.0%+2.0
  • SPD15.0%±0
  • Grüne11.0%-1.0
  • Linke11.0%+1.0
  • FDP3.0%±0
  • BSW3.0%±0
  • Others6.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 27 Jun 2025.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by AfD on 24.0%. 1,367 people were surveyed from 22 to 24 Jul 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 27 Jun 2025, CDU/CSU loses 2.0 points, AfD gains 2.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 25 Jul 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • BSW -1.0average 4.0
  • CDU/CSU -0.8average 27.8
  • Grüne -0.8average 11.8
  • Linke +0.8average 10.2
  • SPD +0.7average 14.3
  • AfD +0.5average 23.5
  • FDP -0.4average 3.4
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 193 seatsAfD: 172 seatsSPD: 107 seatsGrüne: 79 seatsLinke: 79 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU193
  • AfD172
  • SPD107
  • Grüne79
  • Linke79
  • CDU/CSU + AfD365 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne379 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke379 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne358 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke358 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke351 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke330 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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