Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 2 May 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
28 to 30 Apr 2025
Respondents
1,297
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU27.0%+1.0
  • AfD23.0%-1.0
  • SPD15.0%±0
  • Grüne11.0%-1.0
  • Linke10.0%±0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • BSW3.0%±0
  • Others7.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 11 Apr 2025.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by AfD on 23.0%. 1,297 people were surveyed from 28 to 30 Apr 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 11 Apr 2025, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has AfD 1.8 points lower and CDU/CSU 1.5 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 2 May 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD -1.8average 24.8
  • CDU/CSU +1.5average 25.5
  • BSW -1.3average 4.3
  • Grüne -0.5average 11.5
  • FDP +0.5average 3.5
  • SPD -0.2average 15.2
  • Linke ±0average 10.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 198 seatsAfD: 168 seatsSPD: 110 seatsGrüne: 81 seatsLinke: 73 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU198
  • AfD168
  • SPD110
  • Grüne81
  • Linke73
  • CDU/CSU + AfD366 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne389 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke381 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne359 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke352 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke351 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke322 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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