Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 21 March 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
18 to 20 Mar 2025
Respondents
1,305
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU27.0%-1.0
  • AfD22.0%+1.0
  • SPD16.0%+1.0
  • Grüne12.0%-1.0
  • Linke10.0%±0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • BSW3.0%±0
  • Others6.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 7 Mar 2025.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 1,305 people were surveyed from 18 to 20 Mar 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 7 Mar 2025, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU 2.3 points lower and Linke 1.8 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Mar 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -2.3average 29.3
  • Linke +1.8average 8.2
  • BSW -1.5average 4.5
  • AfD +1.0average 21.0
  • SPD +0.8average 15.2
  • Grüne -0.6average 12.6
  • FDP ±0average 4.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 196 seatsAfD: 159 seatsSPD: 116 seatsGrüne: 87 seatsLinke: 72 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU196
  • AfD159
  • SPD116
  • Grüne87
  • Linke72
  • CDU/CSU + AfD355 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne399 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke384 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne362 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke355 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke347 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke318 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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