Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 30 January 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
27 to 29 Jan 2025
Respondents
1,428
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU29.0%-1.0
  • AfD21.0%±0
  • SPD15.0%±0
  • Grüne14.0%±0
  • Linke5.0%±0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • BSW4.0%+1.0
  • Others8.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 24 Jan 2025.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 1,428 people were surveyed from 27 to 29 Jan 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 24 Jan 2025, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, BSW gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU 1.6 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Jan 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -1.6average 30.6
  • SPD -1.1average 16.1
  • Linke +1.1average 3.9
  • AfD +0.8average 20.2
  • BSW -0.8average 4.8
  • Grüne +0.3average 13.7
  • FDP +0.1average 3.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 218 seatsAfD: 157 seatsSPD: 113 seatsGrüne: 105 seatsLinke: 37 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU218
  • AfD157
  • SPD113
  • Grüne105
  • Linke37
  • CDU/CSU + AfD375 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD331 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne323 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne375 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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