Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 24 January 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
21 to 23 Jan 2025
Respondents
1,345
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU30.0%±0
  • AfD21.0%±0
  • SPD15.0%+1.0
  • Grüne14.0%-1.0
  • Linke5.0%+1.0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • BSW3.0%-1.0
  • Others8.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 10 Jan 2025.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 1,345 people were surveyed from 21 to 23 Jan 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 10 Jan 2025, SPD gains 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points, Linke gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has BSW 2.2 points lower and Linke 1.7 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 24 Jan 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • BSW -2.2average 5.2
  • Linke +1.7average 3.3
  • AfD +1.5average 19.5
  • SPD -1.5average 16.5
  • CDU/CSU -0.7average 30.7
  • Grüne +0.3average 13.7
  • FDP -0.1average 4.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 222 seatsAfD: 156 seatsSPD: 111 seatsGrüne: 104 seatsLinke: 37 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU222
  • AfD156
  • SPD111
  • Grüne104
  • Linke37
  • CDU/CSU + AfD378 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD333 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne326 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne371 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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