Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 10 January 2025 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 7 to 9 Jan 2025
- Respondents
- 1,433
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU30.0%-1.0
- AfD21.0%+2.0
- Grüne15.0%+1.0
- SPD14.0%-1.0
- FDP4.0%+1.0
- Linke4.0%±0
- BSW4.0%-1.0
- Others8.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 20 Dec 2024.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 1,433 people were surveyed from 7 to 9 Jan 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 20 Dec 2024, AfD gains 2.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has SPD 2.3 points lower and AfD 1.9 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 10 Jan 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD -2.3average 16.3
- AfD +1.9average 19.1
- Grüne +1.6average 13.4
- BSW -1.5average 5.5
- CDU/CSU -1.4average 31.4
- Linke +0.9average 3.1
- FDP +0.1average 3.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU236
- AfD166
- Grüne118
- SPD110
- CDU/CSU + AfD402 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne354 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD346 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + SPD394 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.