Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 20 December 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 17 to 19 Dec 2024
- Respondents
- 1,362
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU31.0%-2.0
- AfD19.0%+2.0
- SPD15.0%±0
- Grüne14.0%±0
- BSW5.0%±0
- Linke4.0%+1.0
- FDP3.0%-1.0
- Others9.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 6 Dec 2024.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,362 people were surveyed from 17 to 19 Dec 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 6 Dec 2024, CDU/CSU loses 2.0 points, AfD gains 2.0 points, Linke gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 20 Dec 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD -1.4average 16.4
- Linke +1.1average 2.9
- BSW -1.0average 6.0
- CDU/CSU -0.9average 31.9
- Grüne +0.9average 13.1
- FDP -0.9average 3.9
- AfD +0.7average 18.3
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU233
- AfD142
- SPD113
- Grüne105
- BSW37
- CDU/CSU + AfD375 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD346 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne338 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne360 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.