Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 8 November 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 5 to 7 Nov 2024
- Respondents
- 1,231
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU33.0%+2.0
- AfD18.0%±0
- SPD16.0%±0
- Grüne12.0%+1.0
- BSW6.0%-2.0
- Linke4.0%±0
- FDP3.0%±0
- Others8.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 18 Oct 2024.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 33.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 1,231 people were surveyed from 5 to 7 Nov 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 18 Oct 2024, CDU/CSU gains 2.0 points, BSW loses 2.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has BSW 1.6 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 8 Nov 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW -1.6average 7.6
- Grüne +1.3average 10.7
- FDP -1.1average 4.1
- AfD +0.9average 17.1
- Linke +0.9average 3.1
- SPD +0.4average 15.6
- CDU/CSU ±0average 33.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU245
- AfD133
- SPD119
- Grüne89
- BSW44
- CDU/CSU + AfD378 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD364 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne334 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne341 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.