Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 18 October 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 15 to 17 Oct 2024
- Respondents
- 1,249
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU31.0%±0
- AfD18.0%+1.0
- SPD16.0%±0
- Grüne11.0%-1.0
- BSW8.0%±0
- Linke4.0%±0
- FDP3.0%-1.0
- Others9.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 27 Sep 2024.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 1,249 people were surveyed from 15 to 17 Oct 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 27 Sep 2024, AfD gains 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points, FDP loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 18 Oct 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -1.2average 32.2
- Linke +1.1average 2.9
- FDP -1.1average 4.1
- AfD +0.6average 17.4
- SPD +0.5average 15.5
- Grüne +0.1average 10.9
- BSW +0.1average 7.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU233
- AfD135
- SPD120
- Grüne82
- BSW60
- CDU/CSU + AfD368 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD353 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW375 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne337 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.