Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 27 September 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 24 to 26 Sep 2024
- Respondents
- 1,348
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU31.0%-2.0
- AfD17.0%±0
- SPD16.0%+1.0
- Grüne12.0%+1.0
- BSW8.0%+1.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- Linke4.0%±0
- Others8.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 6 Sep 2024.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 17.0%. 1,348 people were surveyed from 24 to 26 Sep 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 6 Sep 2024, CDU/CSU loses 2.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU 1.7 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 27 Sep 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -1.7average 32.7
- SPD +1.3average 14.7
- Linke +1.1average 2.9
- Grüne +0.9average 11.1
- AfD -0.8average 17.8
- BSW -0.3average 8.3
- FDP +0.1average 3.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU233
- AfD127
- SPD120
- Grüne90
- BSW60
- CDU/CSU + AfD360 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD353 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne323 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne337 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.