Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 15 August 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 12 to 14 Aug 2024
- Respondents
- 1,334
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU32.0%±0
- AfD16.0%-1.0
- SPD14.0%±0
- Grüne13.0%±0
- BSW8.0%+1.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Others10.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 12 Jul 2024.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 16.0%. 1,334 people were surveyed from 12 to 14 Aug 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 12 Jul 2024, AfD loses 1.0 points, BSW gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 15 Aug 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- FDP -1.3average 5.3
- SPD -1.2average 15.2
- Grüne +1.2average 11.8
- CDU/CSU +1.1average 30.9
- AfD -1.0average 17.0
- BSW -0.1average 8.1
- Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU243
- AfD121
- SPD106
- Grüne99
- BSW61
- CDU/CSU + AfD364 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD349 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne342 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne326 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.