Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 12 July 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 9 to 11 Jul 2024
- Respondents
- 1,341
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU32.0%+1.0
- AfD17.0%±0
- SPD14.0%±0
- Grüne13.0%±0
- BSW7.0%±0
- FDP4.0%±0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Others10.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 28 Jun 2024.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 17.0%. 1,341 people were surveyed from 9 to 11 Jul 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 28 Jun 2024, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 12 Jul 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU +1.3average 30.7
- FDP -1.3average 5.3
- BSW -0.7average 7.7
- Grüne +0.6average 12.4
- SPD -0.5average 14.5
- AfD +0.1average 16.9
- Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU243
- AfD129
- SPD106
- Grüne99
- BSW53
- CDU/CSU + AfD372 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD349 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne342 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne334 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.