Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 28 June 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
25 to 27 Jun 2024
Respondents
1,186
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU31.0%+1.0
  • AfD17.0%+1.0
  • SPD14.0%±0
  • Grüne13.0%-1.0
  • BSW7.0%±0
  • FDP4.0%-1.0
  • Linke3.0%
  • Others11.0%-3.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 13 Jun 2024.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 17.0%. 1,186 people were surveyed from 25 to 27 Jun 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 13 Jun 2024, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 28 Jun 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD -1.2average 15.2
  • FDP -1.0average 5.0
  • CDU/CSU +0.6average 30.4
  • AfD +0.2average 16.8
  • Grüne +0.2average 12.8
  • BSW +0.1average 6.9
  • Linke -0.1average 3.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 238 seatsAfD: 131 seatsSPD: 107 seatsGrüne: 100 seatsBSW: 54 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU238
  • AfD131
  • SPD107
  • Grüne100
  • BSW54
  • CDU/CSU + AfD369 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD345 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne338 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne338 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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