Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 17 May 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 14 to 16 May 2024
- Respondents
- 1,247
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU31.0%+1.0
- AfD16.0%-1.0
- SPD15.0%±0
- Grüne13.0%-2.0
- FDP5.0%+1.0
- BSW5.0%±0
- Linke4.0%±0
- Others11.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 26 Apr 2024.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 16.0%. 1,247 people were surveyed from 14 to 16 May 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 26 Apr 2024, Grüne loses 2.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 17 May 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD -1.1average 17.1
- BSW -1.1average 6.1
- Grüne -0.9average 13.9
- SPD -0.7average 15.7
- Linke +0.7average 3.3
- CDU/CSU +0.4average 30.6
- FDP +0.1average 4.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU230
- AfD119
- SPD111
- Grüne96
- FDP37
- BSW37
- CDU/CSU + AfD349 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD341 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne326 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne326 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.