Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 8 March 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
5 to 7 Mar 2024
Respondents
1,260
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU30.0%±0
  • AfD18.0%-1.0
  • SPD15.0%±0
  • Grüne15.0%+1.0
  • BSW5.0%±0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • Linke3.0%-1.0
  • Freie Wähler3.0%
  • Others7.0%-2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 23 Feb 2024.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 1,260 people were surveyed from 5 to 7 Mar 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 23 Feb 2024, AfD loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, Linke loses 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 8 Mar 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne +1.4average 13.6
  • BSW -1.4average 6.4
  • FDP -1.0average 5.0
  • AfD -0.8average 18.8
  • Freie Wähler +0.5average 2.5
  • SPD -0.2average 15.2
  • CDU/CSU ±0average 30.0
  • Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 228 seatsAfD: 136 seatsSPD: 114 seatsGrüne: 114 seatsBSW: 38 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU228
  • AfD136
  • SPD114
  • Grüne114
  • BSW38
  • CDU/CSU + AfD364 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD342 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne342 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne364 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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