Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 2 February 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 30 Jan 2024 to 1 Feb 2024
- Respondents
- 1,217
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU31.0%±0
- AfD19.0%-3.0
- SPD15.0%+2.0
- Grüne13.0%-1.0
- BSW6.0%+2.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- Linke3.0%-1.0
- Freie Wähler3.0%-1.0
- Others6.0%+2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 12 Jan 2024.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,217 people were surveyed from 30 Jan 2024 to 1 Feb 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 12 Jan 2024, AfD loses 3.0 points, SPD gains 2.0 points, BSW gains 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has AfD 1.8 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 2 Feb 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD -1.8average 20.8
- FDP -1.2average 5.2
- Linke -0.7average 3.7
- CDU/CSU +0.6average 30.4
- Grüne -0.3average 13.3
- Freie Wähler +0.3average 2.7
- SPD -0.1average 15.1
- BSW ±0average 6.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU233
- AfD142
- SPD113
- Grüne97
- BSW45
- CDU/CSU + AfD375 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD346 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne330 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne352 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.