Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 12 January 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 9 to 11 Jan 2024
- Respondents
- 1,337
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU31.0%-1.0
- AfD22.0%±0
- Grüne14.0%±0
- SPD13.0%-1.0
- FDP4.0%-1.0
- Linke4.0%±0
- Freie Wähler4.0%+1.0
- BSW4.0%
- Others4.0%-2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 15 Dec 2023.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 1,337 people were surveyed from 9 to 11 Jan 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 15 Dec 2023, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points, FDP loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has SPD 1.8 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 12 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD -1.8average 14.8
- FDP -1.1average 5.1
- Freie Wähler +1.0average 3.0
- Grüne +0.9average 13.1
- CDU/CSU -0.6average 31.6
- AfD -0.2average 22.2
- Linke +0.1average 3.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU244
- AfD173
- Grüne110
- SPD103
- CDU/CSU + AfD417 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne354 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD347 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + SPD386 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.