Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 15 December 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 12 to 14 Dec 2023
- Respondents
- 1,146
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU32.0%+1.0
- AfD22.0%±0
- SPD14.0%-1.0
- Grüne14.0%-1.0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke4.0%±0
- Freie Wähler3.0%
- Others6.0%-2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 24 Nov 2023.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 1,146 people were surveyed from 12 to 14 Dec 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 24 Nov 2023, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 15 Dec 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU +1.4average 30.6
- SPD -1.0average 15.0
- FDP -0.3average 5.3
- AfD +0.2average 21.8
- Grüne +0.2average 13.8
- Linke +0.1average 3.9
- Freie Wähler ±0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU232
- AfD159
- SPD102
- Grüne101
- FDP36
- CDU/CSU + AfD391 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD334 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne333 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne362 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.