Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 24 November 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
21 to 23 Nov 2023
Respondents
1,242
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU31.0%+1.0
  • AfD22.0%+1.0
  • SPD15.0%-1.0
  • Grüne15.0%±0
  • FDP5.0%±0
  • Linke4.0%±0
  • Others8.0%+2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 10 Nov 2023.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 1,242 people were surveyed from 21 to 23 Nov 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 10 Nov 2023, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 24 Nov 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU +1.4average 29.6
  • AfD +1.2average 20.8
  • SPD -0.8average 15.8
  • Grüne +0.6average 14.4
  • FDP -0.6average 5.6
  • Linke -0.1average 4.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 222 seatsAfD: 158 seatsSPD: 107 seatsGrüne: 107 seatsFDP: 36 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU222
  • AfD158
  • SPD107
  • Grüne107
  • FDP36
  • CDU/CSU + AfD380 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD329 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne329 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne372 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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