Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 10 November 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
7 to 9 Nov 2023
Respondents
1,234
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU30.0%±0
  • AfD21.0%±0
  • SPD16.0%+1.0
  • Grüne15.0%+1.0
  • FDP5.0%±0
  • Linke4.0%-1.0
  • Freie Wähler3.0%±0
  • Others6.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 20 Oct 2023.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 1,234 people were surveyed from 7 to 9 Nov 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 20 Oct 2023, SPD gains 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, Linke loses 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 10 Nov 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne +0.6average 14.4
  • CDU/CSU +0.4average 29.6
  • FDP -0.3average 5.3
  • Linke -0.2average 4.2
  • SPD +0.1average 15.9
  • AfD ±0average 21.0
  • Freie Wähler ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 217 seatsAfD: 152 seatsSPD: 116 seatsGrüne: 109 seatsFDP: 36 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU217
  • AfD152
  • SPD116
  • Grüne109
  • FDP36
  • CDU/CSU + AfD369 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD333 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne326 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne377 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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