Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 20 October 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 17 to 19 Oct 2023
- Respondents
- 1,252
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU30.0%+4.0
- AfD21.0%±0
- SPD15.0%-2.0
- Grüne14.0%-2.0
- FDP5.0%-1.0
- Linke5.0%±0
- Freie Wähler3.0%±0
- Others7.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 15 Sep 2023.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 1,252 people were surveyed from 17 to 19 Oct 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 15 Sep 2023, CDU/CSU gains 4.0 points, SPD loses 2.0 points, Grüne loses 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU 2.0 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 20 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU +2.0average 28.0
- SPD -1.3average 16.3
- AfD -0.9average 21.9
- FDP -0.8average 5.8
- Linke +0.4average 4.6
- Grüne -0.2average 14.2
- Freie Wähler -0.2average 3.2
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU210
- AfD147
- SPD105
- Grüne98
- FDP35
- Linke35
- CDU/CSU + AfD357 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne413 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP350 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke350 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne350 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP343 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke343 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.