Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 15 September 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 12 to 14 Sep 2023
- Respondents
- 1,201
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU26.0%±0
- AfD21.0%+1.0
- SPD17.0%-2.0
- Grüne16.0%+1.0
- FDP6.0%-1.0
- Linke5.0%±0
- Freie Wähler3.0%
- Others6.0%-2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 18 Aug 2023.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 1,201 people were surveyed from 12 to 14 Sep 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 18 Aug 2023, SPD loses 2.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has Freie Wähler 2.0 points higher and Grüne 1.9 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 15 Sep 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Freie Wähler +2.0average 1.0
- Grüne +1.9average 14.1
- CDU/CSU -1.0average 27.0
- FDP -0.9average 6.9
- SPD -0.7average 17.7
- Linke +0.3average 4.7
- AfD -0.1average 21.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU180
- AfD145
- SPD118
- Grüne111
- FDP41
- Linke35
- CDU/CSU + AfD325 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne409 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne374 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP339 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke333 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP332 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke326 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.