Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 18 August 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 15 to 17 Aug 2023
- Respondents
- 1,288
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU26.0%-1.0
- AfD20.0%±0
- SPD19.0%+2.0
- Grüne15.0%-1.0
- FDP7.0%±0
- Linke5.0%+1.0
- Others8.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 14 Jul 2023.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 1,288 people were surveyed from 15 to 17 Aug 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 14 Jul 2023, SPD gains 2.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 18 Aug 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD +0.8average 18.2
- CDU/CSU -0.5average 26.5
- AfD -0.5average 20.5
- Grüne +0.4average 14.6
- Linke +0.3average 4.7
- FDP +0.2average 6.8
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU178
- AfD137
- SPD130
- Grüne103
- FDP48
- Linke34
- CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD445 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Grüne418 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne411 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne370 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP363 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP356 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke349 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke342 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP329 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.