Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 14 July 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 11 to 13 Jul 2023
- Respondents
- 1,346
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU27.0%-1.0
- AfD20.0%+1.0
- SPD17.0%-1.0
- Grüne16.0%±0
- FDP7.0%+1.0
- Linke4.0%-1.0
- Others9.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 30 Jun 2023.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 1,346 people were surveyed from 11 to 13 Jul 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 30 Jun 2023, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has SPD 1.5 points lower and Grüne 1.5 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 14 Jul 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD -1.5average 18.5
- Grüne +1.5average 14.5
- Linke -0.8average 4.8
- FDP +0.2average 6.8
- CDU/CSU +0.1average 26.9
- AfD -0.1average 20.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU195
- AfD145
- SPD123
- Grüne116
- FDP51
- CDU/CSU + AfD340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD318 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne384 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP362 of 630
- AfD + SPD + FDP319 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.