Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 30 June 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
27 to 29 Jun 2023
Respondents
1,379
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU28.0%±0
  • AfD19.0%+1.0
  • SPD18.0%-1.0
  • Grüne16.0%±0
  • FDP6.0%±0
  • Linke5.0%±0
  • Others8.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 16 Jun 2023.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,379 people were surveyed from 27 to 29 Jun 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 16 Jun 2023, AfD gains 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has Grüne 1.5 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Jun 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne +1.5average 14.5
  • SPD -1.0average 19.0
  • FDP -0.8average 6.8
  • CDU/CSU +0.5average 27.5
  • AfD -0.5average 19.5
  • Linke +0.4average 4.6
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 192 seatsAfD: 130 seatsSPD: 123 seatsGrüne: 110 seatsFDP: 41 seatsLinke: 34 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU192
  • AfD130
  • SPD123
  • Grüne110
  • FDP41
  • Linke34
  • CDU/CSU + AfD322 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne425 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne363 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP356 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke349 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP343 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke336 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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